In a game of statistical chance, one would naturally assume that a player with
the highest IQ would be aware of all the best possible choices, & actually
have the sense (!) to act on them each & every time, with little deviation,
except for the changing dynamics of the game.
However, there is a missing element here: Pure,
cold, almost inhuman (as in ‘Vulcan’) logic. If logic does not come into play,
then great intellect will not save even canniest player.
Unfortunately, no matter their IQ (or morals) most
humans do not often display this type of logic.
To make it even more interesting, add a huge number
of these individuals into a game of statistical chance (like the ones you
mention), or, on a much wider scale, worldwide economics, such as the stock
market, (or the brinkmanship of a worldwide war). Then you get something very,
very close to what Isaac Asimov called ‘psychohistory’ in his Foundation Series, where individual actions count for little, when compared to the larger
group. In his series, Asimov proposed that the statistical data from psychohistory
could be used to predict and ultimately guide human history itself.
Individually, such choices as one might find in any
game that utilizes Nash equilibria (such as the Hawk-Dove game, or just two
people walking down the street trying to decide if they should veer left or
right to avoid running into each other), such choices & statistics don’t
count for much.
However, on a world-wide economic, or planetary
scale, they pretty much amount to nothing less than the tide of human history
itself (&, of course, the fluctuations of the stock market, which can bring
global collapse, as we have seen.)
Side note: A good example of a game utilizing the
concepts of the Nash Equilibrium is the game ‘Strategema’ from episode ‘Peak Performance’ of Star Trek: The Next Generation. (Yes, unfortunately, I am a Star Trek fan!) When two opponents are too well matched, a path of continual
balance leading to a draw (as opposed to seeking to win) is best route to a victory
of sorts – for both players. The same could be said for a good game of chess.
Figuring all this stuff out (& the consequences
thereof) is what game theory, statistics, & even Asimov’s psychohistory are
all about. As such, IQ, morals, & even random choice are best pushed aside
for pure logic, something we humans come by only by great difficulty
individually, if at all, & NEVER in large groups!
